I'll Have Another surprises to win Robert B. Lewis Stakes

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/04/2012 - Arcadia, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - I'll Have Another, the longest shot in the field, pulled an upset in Saturday's $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park. The 1 1/16-mile stakes is a stepping stone to the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 7.

Sent off as the 43-1 outsider in the eight-horse field, I'll Have Another was racing second up the backstretch behind pacesetter Isn't He Clever. Liaison, the 3-2 favorite, was running in third in the early going and fourth on the backstretch.

I'll Have Another, ridden by Mario Gutierrez, continued to press the pace as the field entered the far turn. Coming into the stretch Isn't He Clever was joined by I'll Have Another on the lead, but the eventual winner went past the pacesetter down the stretch.

I'll Have Another, trained by Doug O'Neill, hit the wire 2 3/4-lengths to the good over 11-1 longshot Empire Way. Groovin' Bob was third followed by Rousing Sermon, Isn't He Clever, Sky Kingdom and Chips All In. Liaison clipped heels and lost his jockey inside the furlong pole. Groovin' Bob was disqualified to last for interference in midstretch.

"He's an incredibly talented colt and we decided to take a chance in here," the winning trainer noted. "We thought he could hit the board and we'd move forward, but he ran unbelievable. Mario (Gutierrez) gave him a great ride. He's always trained fantastic, but we never saw this coming to be honest with you. This is incredible. We'll look at the Santa Anita Derby if all goes well."

The time for the Lewis Stakes was 1:40.84 on a fast track.

I'll Have Another, owned by Reddam Racing, notched his first win since beginning his career with a victory last July at Hollywood Park. Saturday's win was worth $120,000. The chestnut colt followed his initial win with a second in the Best Pal Stakes in August and a sixth at Saratoga in the Hopeful. His earnings now stand at $184,000.

"We bought him at the OBS (sale) in April of last year and we've loved him since Day One," said Dennis O'Neill, the trainer's brother and associate. "He trained like a really good horse from Day One, trained like a two-turn horse from Day One. He came out of his Saratoga race with sore shins, so when we got him back going, Paul (owner J. Paul Reddam) said to take our time with him. We paid $35,000 for him. It's great for Paul. Paul's put a lot of money in the game and this is fantastic for Paul."

I'll Have Another returned $88.60, $35.80 and $12.00. Empire Way paid $11.80 and $6.20, and Rousing Sermon paid $3.40 to show.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.